“Let China sleep. For when she wakes she will shake the World .”
Whether or not Napoleon Bonaparte actually said these words 200 years ago, this quote has now become synonymous with the rapid growth of the Chinese economy during the past half century, and this economic growth has seen China begin to look further afield from its own territory.
In 2017, China’s GDP reached over $12 trillion USD, almost five times larger than its geopolitical rival India, and lagging only behind the US economy.
As one of the worlds largest traders, the Chinese are now seeking to orchestrate the next major developments in the global trade network. This idea is summed up in China’s flagship foreign policy strategy: The Belt and Road Initiative.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was first eluded to at a 2013 conference in Kazakhstan by Chinese Premier Xi Jinping. Kazakhstan‘s location within Central Asia places it at the heart of the ancient Silk Road route between Europe and East Asia.
Jinping proposed a new “Economic Belt” along the Silk Road, to connect trading partners outside of East Asia via land routes converging on China. Such land routes had been largely under-utilised due to the lack of industrialisation in the region.
A few months later, Jinping gave a speech in Indonesia. Indonesia‘s location within Southeast Asia puts it at the crossroads of major shipping routes between the Indian and Pacific Oceans - almost 50% of global seaborne freight passes Indonesian territory.
China’s grand strategy was becoming clear, as Jinping proposed a “Maritime Silk Road” in the 21st Century, connecting China with the Indian Ocean. The speeches in Kazakhstan and Indonesia show the scale of China’s plans for the global trade network, as their proposition encompasses over half of the Earth’s land and people.
The proposed corridors themselves show the magnitude of China’s plans. Six individual land routes, covering tens of thousands of kilometres over dozens of countries, is arguably an unprecedented logistical challenge. That doesn’t even take into account the maritime infrastructure needed.
As we have mentioned previously when touching on the importance of the Pakistan Ecolonic Corridor, China has been pumping in resources across the entire network. This includes new bridges, railways lines, and shipping ports, dotted across entire continents.
The number of Chinese infrastructure projects along the Indian Ocean coastline has even been dubbed as the “String of Pearls”, in reference to their value to China and the network.
Countries such as Laos, Sri Lanka, Djibouti, and Serbia have all received infrastructure investments from China as part of the BRI. The geographical distance between each of these countries alone shows the scale of the BRI. To say this is the most ambitious project in modern history would not be too far off the mark.
So how is China funding all of this?
The 2016 creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is one example as to how the Chinese government invests the capital necessary for BRI projects into dedicated financial institutions - the AIIB has over 50 countries who have invested support in the idea of the BRI.
The rise of such Chinese financial institutions has seen dissatisfaction from the more established institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank, who are largely backed by the USA.
They argue that the low interest, almost unconditional loans given out by China are ‘debt traps’ , and that the requirement of using Chinese workers in most of their infrastructure projects marginalises local labourers.
However, Chinese investments do not come with a long list of criteria that the Western institutions require countries to meet , which is far more attractive to developing nations seeking investment. As a result of this, many countries are now turning to China for investment.
This is making the Western institutions nervous that they may be diminishing in influence, at a time when the USA appears to be turning more towards isolationism under the Trump administration.
Western nervousness is the beginning of the manifestation of the supposed words of Napoleon - the World is not yet shaking, but we can clearly see that China is restless.