On December 19 2018, riots and protests erupted across cities in Sudan. These protests were sparked by worsening economic conditions and the price of goods being tripled which soon manifested in a demand for Sudan's President, Omar Al-Bashir, to step down.
Bashir's reaction was criticised by the international community as the peaceful protests were met with violence and police brutality. Bashir declared a national emergency on February 22 2019.
Yet, the Sudanese people were aided by the military and on April 10, protesters were seen being shielded by the military from security and intelligence forces.
On April 11, the military removed Bashir in a coup d'etat.
Whilst the aid of the military has delivered the requests of the people, demand is being made on the ruling Transitional Military Council to immediately step down and make way for a transitional civilian government.
Yet, the people of Sudan are not going to loosen their grip lightly. The country has seen far too much corruption, brutality and military rule. To understand the conflict properly, Sudan's history must be explained.
First Civil War (1955-1972)
After Sudan's independence from the British in 1956, the 20th century saw Sudan ruled by a number of unstable government and military regimes. Moreover, the British instalment of Sudan's own government carelessly catered for the sensitive relationship between the North and South, as it had previously been administered as two different regions.
A common precursor to regional conflicts in Africa is occupations and mismanagement by former European empires, which unfortunately for the people of Sudan, was exactly what happened.
Its first government contained a tiny minority of Southern officials, the rest were from the North. Additionally, choosing Arabic as the constitutional and legal language alienated many in the South who predominantly spoke English, making it difficult to participate in government.
The demand for greater representation and more regional autonomy erupted into a 17-year long conflict between the government forces in the North and the Anyana and eventual South Sudan Liberation Movement in the South. The war resulted in a stalemate and half a million deaths.
Second Civil War (1983-2005)
Sharia Law was established under Gaafar Nimeiry in 1983, widening a rift between the Islamist North and Christian and Animist South. With groups such as the National Islamic Front (North) and Sudan People's Liberation Army (South) embroiling themselves in a struggle for government power, a second civil war lasting 21 years erupted across the country.
The war resulted in the independence of South Sudan in 2011, but at the cost of 2 civilian million deaths, marking the war as one of the bloodiest conflicts since World War II.
Some see the civil wars as one half a century conflict with an 11-year hiatus in the middle, as the tensions that caused the first also caused the second with little to no resolve.
Omar al-Bashir
Al-Bashir seized power in 1989 and declared himself president in 1993. By 1996 he was the only legal Presidential candidate and Sudan became dominated by the National Congress Party, becoming a one-party state. Al-Bashir had held power for three decades before finally being overthrown in April 2019.
The International Community
Sudan has had a complicated relationship with the international community and many of its neighbours.
In the 1990s, then speaker of the National Assembly, Dr Hassan al-Turabi, reached out to Islamist fundamentalist groups and invited Osama Bin Laden to take asylum. The US subsequently listed Sudan as state-sponsors of global terrorism.
Al-Turabi led the National Islamist Front (NIF), an Islamist political organisation which later dominated Sudanese politics. Much of the 1990s saw Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia supported by the US in their opposition and goal to check the influence of the NIF.
Sudan later developed relations with Iraq and Iran because of increasing pressure and international sanctions.
In February 2003, the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) took up arms against the Sudanese government, accusing them of oppressing non-Arab Sudanese which sparked the War in Darfur. The conflict was later seen as a genocide, and the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued two warrants for al-Bashir's arrest.
Sudan has since developed more moderate foreign relations and in 2017 US President Donald Trump lifted its sanctions on the nation.
An end to the Second Civil War has seen Chinese investment and the two countries have extensive economic relations. It is estimated that China has a ten per cent stake in Sudan's oil reserves.
Implications for the future
As of the publication of this article, the people of Sudan and many in the international community are expecting the military to step aside and for a civilian government to be established. However this is no simple task.
Arguably now the biggest influence in the region, Saudi Arabia's previous relationship with Sudan was stale. However, immediately following the military's control of Sudan, along with the UAE, it pledged a $3bn aid package to support the Sudanese economy and therefore the ruling Transitional Military Council.
Gulf News has described the head of the TMC's role in the War in Darfur as "civil" and "professional". As mentioned, this "war" has been widely considered genocide, and so civil and professional are not adjectives the International Criminal Court would agree with.
The UAE's similarly positive enthusiasm for the military rule can be attributed to perhaps the biggest fear of many Arab countries: regime change. A successful and relatively peaceful regime change threatens the safety many regimes feel after the arguable failure of the Arab Spring in 2011.
Only time will tell how dangerous or positive the situation may become over the next coming months.
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