Trump’s US-Mexico border issues and the subsequent government shut down have taken up most headlines in the recent few weeks. Now that we’re (sort of) back on track, we should assess the context and possible outcomes of the summit on 27-28 Feb.
The 2018 Singapore Summit was a watershed moment in the relationship between the US and North Korea. Never had the leaders of each nation met directly without the mediation of diplomats.
Donald Trump was elected US President in 2016 with an outlined opposition to Barack Obama’s policy of “strategic patience”. Many in the international community were stunned by his use of what could be described as “strategic uncertainty”.
Trump would increase tensions and maintain aggressive military mobilisation with the willingness to cut deals at a moment’s notice.
Trump’s tweets didn’t help either. The President’s threats of “fire and fury” and calling Kim “rocket man” significantly heightened tensions.
For the first time, nuclear war went from outright absurd to a genuine possibility. This was made significantly worse on November 28, 2017, when North Korea tested the Hwasong-15, which analysts claimed had capability of reaching anywhere in the US.
Despite Trump cancelling the initial summit on May 24, President Trump and Kim Jong-un met in Singapore on June 28.
Consequently, Trump and Kim signed a joint statement creating new relations between both Koreas and the US. Both parties would move towards the complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula and Trump would provide security guarantees to Pyongyang. Upon returning to the US, President Trump tweeted that North Korea was “no longer a nuclear threat… sleep well!”
Considering that the Hanoi summit is just days away, how is the current relationship between Washington and Pyongyang?
To be honest, complicated.
Relations have certainly improved. North Korea’s anti-American propaganda after the Singapore summit was removed, and Pyongyang cancelled the annual ‘anti-US’ rally event. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has made four trips to Pyongyang and Trump stated the US military would discontinue military exercises with South Korea.
However, frustration on the side of the North Koreans at the harsh economic sanctions still imposed are justified.
North Korea has shut down its inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) assembly facility near Pyongyang. It also began dismantling a rocket testing site near Tongchang on July 24. Kim pledged this to Trump, and South Korean President Moon called the move “a good sign for North Korea’s denuclearisation”.
However, North Korean foreign minister Ri Yong Ho said he was “alarmed” by ongoing economic sanctions. Additionally, in 2019 there are still several US nuclear bomber fighters stationed in South Korea, despite security assurances.
This elephant in the room means the Hanoi Summit may not go as smoothly. North Korea is fulfilling its pledges, the US is not.
Yet, as mentioned, President Trump refuses to broadcast his plans of actions as part of his “strategic uncertainty”. He may take huge steps to his pledges once North Korea has significantly denuclearised.
It’s unlikely North Korea will take any more steps without more compliance from the US, though. There has been little denuclearisation in 2019 and Pyongyang has also said they would only continue if the US took corresponding measures.
At twice the length of last year’s summit, one can hope this means Trump has made concessions to ensure denuclearisation. Ideally, Trump lifts sanctions and installs a trade deal between both Koreas and the US.
A stable North East Asia is in the interest of the international community. Collectively, North Korea has the second largest magnesite deposits in the world and is rich in mineral wealth. Having trade deals with that supply would be very handy for the US indeed.
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