The picture above was taken on September 13, 1985, when Major Doug Pearson became the first man in history to destroy a satellite by airplane. An iconic moment, Major Pearson’s mission would forever redefine the boundaries of the battleground: the sky was no longer the limit.
Thirty-five years later, the arena in orbit has officially become militarised. On Friday, December 20 2019, US President Donald Trump signed the National Defence Authorisation Act 2020, which officially established the US Space Force (USSF) as the sixth branch of the armed forces.
For President Trump, the reason for the establishment was clear:
"...space is the world's newest warfighting domain. Amid grave threats to our national security, American superiority in space is absolutely vital. And we're leading, but we're not leading by enough. But very shortly, we'll be leading by a lot. The Space Force will help us deter aggression and control the ultimate high ground."
The establishment of a US Space Force is not to build armed spaceships and put space marines on the moon. Instead, it comes from insecurity of a technology that we all use and take for granted on a daily basis.
And that technology is satellites.
The Importance of Satellites
Satellites are some of the most important machines of our modern lives. The Global Positioning System (GPS), owned by the US Air Force, is essential for maintaning the global economy.
Much of everyday life in modern economies is reliant on GPS. It has therefore been called the invisible utility behind all Critical National Infrastructure (CNI). Vital domains affected in CNI include: Road, Rail, Aviation, Maritime, Food, Emergency and Justice Services, Surveying, Location Based Service, and Financial Transaction Timing.
Precision farming, global financial transactions and maritime trade rely on GPS.
Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) such as GPS, are clearly vital assets for states and the running of their economies. Whilst GPS is the most intrinsic GNSS for the global economy, it is not the only one.
A states satellite assets are not exclusive to just GNSS, however. Satellites are used by the military, meteorologists, telecommunications networks and astronomers.
The Security Dilemma
In international relations, the security dilemma is a potential scenario that can be caused in global anarchy.
It begins with the action of a state to securitise, through weapons development, troop deployment, or alliance building. This action is interpreted by a neighboring or rival state as a threat to their own security and so they enact equal or more intense security measures to strengthen their resolve.
This response is concurrently percieved as a threat to the original state, and in response they equip more aggressive security measures aimed at securitising specifically against the second state.
However, because this arms race exists in a state of global anarchy, there is no immediate and overarching safety mechanism with enough hard power to curtail the security buildup. Thus, a security dilemma is created.
The Security Dilemma in Space
This scenario is incredibly dangerous in space, particularly low-earth orbit, where the majority of space infrastructure like GNSS is located.
ASAT attacks, satellite weaponry and other means of space warfare have dangerous consequences.
Kessler syndrome (see below) is a phenomenon caused by orbital debris colliding with other objects in space that can themselves causes a runaway effect of collisions. It can render human society trapped on Earth with no way of escaping the atmosphere.
The importance of satellite infrastructure can mean warfare or conflict in space could do irreversible damage to our economy and modern industries.
Warfare in space could be terrible for Earth's civilian areas, environments and ecosystems. Essentially, what goes up, must come down. Orbital debris is difficult to control when it is hurling towards major population centres or delicate systems at terminal velocity.
What is scary, however, is that Trump's establishment of the USSF is a step towards a security dilemma in space. By making the USA's security force in space an official branch of the military, President Trump has arguably redrawn the boundaries of Earth's battleground.
Interestingly, Trump's decision likely comes from recent moves by China, India and Russia to develop a military presence in space.
China
In January, 2019, the US Defence Intelligence Agency noted,
“China has devoted significant economic and political resources to its space program…from improving military space applications to developing human spaceflight”
However, most interestingly, Chinese anti-satellite weaponry (ASAT) development is the biggest concern to the US. Moreover, China has made significant progress in private space industry, directly threatening the monopoly of American private space ventures such as SpaceX and Blue Horizon.
India
India's ASAT test in 2019 was condemned by American and Chinese officials. NASA's Jim Bridenstine described the test as "irresponsible" and the debris generated endangered other satellites.
Russia
The Russian Federation is the biggest threat to the US' space security.
In February 2020, commander of the USSF General John Raymond reported that a pair of Russian satellites were tailing a US spy satellite, at times creeping within 100 miles of it (see below). Raymond described the “behaviour as unusual and disturbing”.
Russia was also suspected of orbital espionage when it "tried to intercept transmissions from a Franco-Italian satellite used by both nations’ armies for secure communications"
The increasing issue of transparency has led to soured diplomatic relations between Russia and the US in space. Although American-Russian space relations are good for cooperation on the International Space Station (ISS), Russia's aggressive behaviour has led to a mistrust over the subject of Russian satellites and their ambiguous dual-use nature.
Conclusion
The space race during the Cold War was based on a race of scientific development. However, the bipolar struggle involved the obvious, yet harrowing, potential for use of nuclear weapons. In contrast, the modern potential for a security dilemma in space arouses a subtle, non-direct, and non-physical danger for everyday life because the threat concerns the vital and intricate global satellite system.
Currently, the legislation on space conflict is exclusive to banning the use of nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction in space. ASATs, satellite-mounted weaponry, or armed spacecraft do not fall under this category, and the establishment of the USSF could spell potential dangers for the future of space security.
Seemingly, the increasing reliance on and development of space infrastructure could lead to dangerous arms race, perhaps requiring the move of international bodies such as the United Nations to establish new rules and guidelines.