Author: Louis Khan
Hezbollah is an armed non-state actor that plays a key role in the balance of power within the Middle East.
An alliance between Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria represents a significant opposition presence in the region against US domination and their sworn enemy, Israel.
Both Iran and Hezbollah adhere to the idea of ‘Wilayat-al-Faqih’[1] or the concept of an Islamic state implemented by the late Iranian supreme leader - Khomeini. [2] Upon its emergence, Hezbollah outrightly rejected the Lebanese state and viewed it as an enemy and rather sought to create a secular republic grounded within the concept of ‘Wilayat-al-Faqih.’
It was the “Party of God”, committed to the outright obliteration of the state of Israel. Their violent attacks, namely on the Jewish community and the US presence in the region, resulted in many states across the globe labeling Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation.
Hence, economic sanctions have meant restricted access to certain goods from abroad and has also increased the complexity of any institution or state willing and able to work with a Lebanese government propped up by Hezbollah members and its allies. [3]
Hezbollah and Conflict with Israel
Prior to Hezbollah’s inception into Lebanese politics, the organisation's religious ideology was much stricter and ‘Manichean’ in its early days. [4]
Hezbollah removed many outspoken and extreme members, instead, moderates and pragmatists such as Abbas Mousaoui and Hassan Nasrallah were spearheaded into leadership positions. After transforming the organisation, Hezbollah took the opportunity to run in the 1992 elections and subsequently won 12 seats.
By 2000, an Amal-Hezbollah alliance had won 23 seats, around a quarter of all parliamentary seats. They concurrently claimed responsibility for the withdrawal of Israeli troops in the securitised zone of the Israel-Lebanon border.
In 2006, Lebanon found itself at war with Israel again. Known as the July War in Lebanon, the 34-day conflict “resulted in at least 1,109 Lebanese deaths, the vast majority of whom were civilians, 4,399 injured, and an estimated one million displaced.” [5] Meanwhile, “43 Israeli civilians and 12 IDF soldiers were killed”[6] during the conflict. [7]
Whilst officially a stalemate, the heavy Lebanese casualties, and depleted economic resources weakened its image in the Arab World. [8]
A new decade meant new challenges for Hezbollah. With the Arab Spring sweeping across the Middle East, Hezbollah sought to secure their position.
In 2011, the Syrian Civil War erupted, diverting the Party’s attention to Damascus. For Hezbollah, the very “survival of the [Syrian] regime meant the survival of Hezbollah itself”. [9]
Turning Tides
Despite an apparent ascendency within the Lebanese political system, the 2018 parliamentary elections seem to indicate a slightly different story. Hezbollah’s alliance with Amal, Michael Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and other influential groups meant they could only claim 12 out of 128 seats.
Yet, this did not indicate Hezbollah’s inability to influence and implement decisions.[10] On the other hand, Hezbollah is viewed to have a tight hold over many members and have serious clout with backing from Syria and Iran.
Controversy and widespread contempt for the party has undoubtedly tarnished any efforts by Hezbollah to legitimise their inception into the political system. Lebanon is now at risk of political and economic collapse, with many demanding the outright abolition of the sectarian state.[11]
In December 2019, Hassan Diab was sworn in as premier by President Michael Aoun, an ally of Hezbollah. The organisation, coupled with support from AMAL Movement and the FPM, is considered to have a strong grip on the current cabinet in Lebanon.
A Struggling and Unstable Lebanon
For several months, protests have erupted across Lebanon demanding the abolition of the sectarian system and the formation of a new civic state.
The devastating explosion in Beirut on August 4th has further intensified an already dismayed population abhorred with Lebanon’s political and economic circumstances.
Lebanon's economy is crippled with a national debt worth 150% more than its GDP[12], dealing with widespread protests, and a political system mired with corruption and gross mismanagement.
It seems hard to imagine how Hezbollah will regain any credible support, but with political descent swiftly punished and intense media campaigns from sponsor states in the region that have a strong interest in the preservation of a stable Lebanon, only time will tell.
Presently, the unavoidable cries from the public that, at the very least demand the government’s resignation seem all but sealed.[13] The creation of a civic state in Lebanon now seems the only viable option to appease the outraged communities, particularly those in Beirut who have fallen victim to the negligence that caused the devastating explosion and left 300,000 people homeless.
The explosion appears to have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. Many in the country believe that the resignation of the cabinet is merely symbolic rather than something that will materialise into genuine change.[14]
The political elite, namely Hezbollah, blame the current social turmoil on external pressures such as the US and the West. Nonetheless, it is evident that the current situation cuts far deeper.
An overwhelming majority of protestors have ditched sectarian, ideological, and religious affiliations and are far more concerned with the corruption and gross ineptitude of the political class to maneuver Lebanon out of the crisis.
Hezbollah has previously managed to remain relevant in the face of widespread condemnation, which enabled resistance from external military pressures.
Externally, Hezbollah has formed tactical and contextual alliances, as times and situations have changed within Lebanon.
Mounting pressure from Israel to outrightly denounce Hezbollah and many EU states refusing to cooperate with any government-affiliated with the organisation, now represents a monumental challenge to the continuation of Hezbollah, especially their political wing.
Notes
[1] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13629395.2020.1802890?needAccess=true [2] https://hezbollah.org/about-hezbollah [3]https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/the-beirut-tragedy-must-push-europe-even-further-to-tackle-hezbollah-head-on-1.1060707 [4] Nilsson, M., 2020. Hezbollah and the framing of resistance. Third World Quarterly, pp.1-20. [5]https://www.hrw.org/report/2007/09/05/why-they-died/civilian-casualties-lebanon-during-2006-war [6]https://www.hrw.org/report/2007/09/05/why-they-died/civilian-casualties-lebanon-during-2006-war [7] https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180712-remembering-israels-2006-war-on-lebanon/
[8]https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/imminent-failure-lebanon-prime-minister-191225165059777.html [9] Nilsson, M., 2020. Hezbollah and the framing of resistance. Third World Quarterly, pp.1-20. [10] https://hezbollah.org/about-hezbollah [11] https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0805/1157390-what-you-need-to-know-about-lebanon/
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